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Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Commanders is the better survivor pick this week

Commanders score 0.291 equity (31.9% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.001.

ATL team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ PHI

32.8%Win prob31.9%

0.291Equity score0.291

+5.0Spread11/11 books+5.5

41.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15ATL @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · ATL 7 — WAS 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1464.1

#20ELO rank#24

8-9Record5-12

NFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB19.5 · #30

21.7 · #15vs RB25.6 · #27

33.6 · #23vs WR34.9 · #25

10.2 · #3vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game7.47

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

9.3% · #26Play action11.9% · #11

3.7% · #19RPO6.3% · #12

3.8% · #14Screen pass3.7% · #16

9.5% · #8No huddle50.2% · #1

66.0% · #4Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage32.0% · #15

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

31.3% · #13Pressure31.3% · #14

ATL scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)