NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Falcons play Steelers in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices PIT carries the higher survivor equity score.

ATL team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponentvs ATL
33.0%Win prob67.0%
0.296Equity score0.454
+4.5Spread11/11 books−4.5
41.5Game total41.5
▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Acrisure Stadium

Matchup
ATL @ PIT
Spread (home)
−4.5 (11 books)
Total
41.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00

Opened PIT −3.0, now PIT −4.5 · moved 1.5 toward PIT · Total 42.5 → 41.5 (−1.0)(86 snapshots)

Forecast: 81.7°F · wind 7.5 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1ATL @ PITnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · ATL 1 — PIT 6 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1529.4
#20ELO rank#13
8-9Record10-7
NFC SouthDivisionAFC North
#1Division rank#1
W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB18.8 · #27
21.7 · #15vs RB19.5 · #8
33.6 · #23vs WR35.2 · #26
10.2 · #3vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)
9.18Pressures / game9
7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16
9.3% · #26Play action9.2% · #27
3.7% · #19RPO7.0% · #10
3.8% · #14Screen pass6.6% · #1
9.5% · #8No huddle9.7% · #7
66.0% · #4Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage36.9% · #10
34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8
31.3% · #13Pressure29.5% · #20
ATL scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

  • A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
  • Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
  • Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
  • Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
  • Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
  • DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
  • Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
  • Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
  • Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
  • Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
  • Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
  • Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
  • Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
  • Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
  • Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
  • Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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