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Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.091.

ATL team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponentvs GB

32.8%Win prob53.0%

0.291Equity score0.382

+5.0Spread11/11 books−1.5

41.5Game total46.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12ATL @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · ATL 6 — MIN 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1547.9

#20ELO rank#10

8-9Record9-8

NFC SouthDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#4

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB11.1 · #1

21.7 · #15vs RB19.6 · #9

33.6 · #23vs WR23.7 · #1

10.2 · #3vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game9.06

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

9.3% · #26Play action12.5% · #8

3.7% · #19RPO3.7% · #20

3.8% · #14Screen pass4.2% · #10

9.5% · #8No huddle6.1% · #15

66.0% · #4Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage19.0% · #32

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

31.3% · #13Pressure34.1% · #4

ATL scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)