Compare

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.429 equity (60.2% win probability) against Falcons at 0.296 — a real gap of 0.133.

ATL team page →CHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ CAR

33.0%Win prob60.2%

0.296Equity score0.429

+4.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

41.5Game total47.0

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6CHI @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 11 meetings · ATL 4 — CHI 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1510.3

#20ELO rank#17

8-9Record11-6

NFC SouthDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#1

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB18.1 · #22

21.7 · #15vs RB21.7 · #16

33.6 · #23vs WR35.5 · #27

10.2 · #3vs TE13.1 · #14

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.22 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game7.94

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion47.2% · #10

9.3% · #26Play action14.7% · #2

3.7% · #19RPO3.6% · #22

3.8% · #14Screen pass4.1% · #13

9.5% · #8No huddle4.3% · #24

66.0% · #4Shotgun44.2% · #28

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage43.8% · #2

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)28.7% · #11

31.3% · #13Pressure28.7% · #23

ATL scheme profile →CHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)