NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Commanders is the better survivor pick this week

Commanders score 0.291 equity (31.9% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.093.

ARI team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ PHI
19.9%Win prob31.9%
0.199Equity score0.291
+9.5Spread11/11 books+5.5
47.5Game total44.5
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12WAS @ ARInot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · ARI 4 — WAS 14. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1464.1
#29ELO rank#24
3-14Record5-12
NFC WestDivisionNFC East
#4Division rank#3
L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB19.5 · #30
26.9 · #30vs RB25.6 · #27
30.2 · #15vs WR34.9 · #25
16.9 · #30vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)
6.82Pressures / game7.47
3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
13.8% · #3Play action11.9% · #11
2.0% · #26RPO6.3% · #12
4.7% · #8Screen pass3.7% · #16
9.9% · #6No huddle50.2% · #1
59.2% · #9Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage32.0% · #15
27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
25.7% · #29Pressure31.3% · #14
ARI scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

  • Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
  • Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
  • Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
  • Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Washington Commanders

  • Ale KahoLinebackerOut
  • Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
  • Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
  • Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Colson YankoffTight EndOut
  • Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
  • Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
  • Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
  • Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

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